SkyKing162's Baseblog |
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 A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes. 
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3.13.2004
THE ULTIMATE FANTASY CHAMPIONSHIP There's a thread over at RotoJunkie about how fantasy "experts" would fare in your local league, and how one of us would fare in an expert league like LABR and ToutWars. I posted something there, but I think it's good enough to put here, too. Perhaps there needs to be a line drawn between "professional" and "expert". Professionals are paid for their contributions to fantasy baseball, while experts are those that are really really good at it. Very few people are both - Ron Shandler and Todd Zola immediately come to mind. In order to become a professional, you need to "know baseball", be able to write well, and find a way to get published/onto the internet. The first is a baseball talent issue, the second is a secondary talent issue, and the third is an opportunity issue. Really knowing fantasy baseball inside and out is not a qualification. Most of the time it's easiest for old-school baseball writers to get this kind of gig. Not only do most old-school baseball writers not understand the hard-core statistical side of baseball, they might also be completely horrible with the strategy aspect of fantasy baseball, especially when considering different kinds of leagues. Many of the best fantasy baseball people (the actual experts) don't have the three professional qualifications, or simply have no interest in being a professional. And frankly, one year of winning an "expert" league doesn't tell you much about someone's actual abilities. We all spew "sample size, sample size" when talking about stats, and it applies here, too. If you want to really find the best of the best, you need to have lots of data points. That is, you need to have many many leagues. Something like... The Ultimate Fantasy Championship Get 60 "experts" from around the fantasy baseball world - both professionals and non-professionals. Over the course of five years, have each person compete in 5 leagues each year. Each league would be of a different type, covering all the different quirky rules that pop up. Something like: - 15 team MLB 5x5 auction - 12 team NL-only 4x4 auction - 12 team AL-only 5x5 auction - 10 team MLB 5x5 draft - 12 team MLB Yahoo-style draft Participants would be "randomly" placed into leagues, such that each participant wasn't in too many leagues with another participant each year, and wasn't in the same type of league with another participant too many years. Points would be awarded based on position of finish in each league. After five years, add up all the points, and you've got a pretty good idea who the real "experts" are. I bet ESPN would cover it in their Poker/Billiards/Ping Pong/Strongest Man time slot. 3.12.2004
HOW TO WIN YOUR PUBLIC YAHOO LEAGUE Every public Yahoo rotisserie league has exactly the same settings - 5x5, 12 teams, MLB universe, hitters (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, OF, OF, UT), pitchers (SP,SP,RP,RP,P,P,P), reserves (5 bench, 1 DL), and maximums (162 games/hitter position, 1250 total IP). This is the kind of league that most people sign up for when they play Yahoo. Because of its popularity and consistency, Yahoo ranks every team in one of these leagues, and maintains a top 50 list on the fantasy baseball homepage. It's always been a dream of mine to appear on this list. Maybe if one of you reading this finishes in the top 50, you can mention me in your awards speech. The number one rule of any league is to understand how the player pool affects your values. Because there are only three OF positions in these Yahoo leagues, OF are worth less than a traditional league. Lack of a second catcher reduces catcher values as well. And getting rid of the MI/CI has different effects. SS, 2B, and 3B all keep similar value, but since the top 12 1B are very similar, 1B take a hit. My rankings will follow below. You might be tempted to jump on those 2B/SS/3B early, and that wouldn't be a bad idea, but since the rest of your league probably doesn't realize their value, you should feel free to wait for one or two of those positions to fall, and then jump on 'em. Just like you don't want to follow the crowd, you don't want to be too far out in front of the crowd. Although you can't count on it entirely, keep your eye on the Yahoo rankings. Players that are higher tend to go earlier, even when they shouldn't. Another major aspect of Yahoo leagues are the playing time maximums. Let's take hitting first. Each position has a limit of 162 games played. As much as possible, you should try to get a player into your lineup any day one of your starters isn't playing. Becaue I'm going to recommend carrying 2 to 3 extra pitchers on your bench, that leaves 2 to 3 substitute hitters. If you can, get a player that plays at least two of the following positions - 2B, SS, and 3B. When one of those positions has the day off, put the sub in. The other spot should be a 1B/OF type guy who can fill in for those positions. If you decide to keep a third hitter on your bench, make it an OF. With three OF and a UT, there are 4 positions an OF can fill in. If possible try not to have many OF from the same team, as they'll have the same days off and you'll have to sub in multiple subs on the same day, which you might not be able to do. Finally, a word about stolen bases. In league like this, having a stolen-base guy in the OF will kill you. Most teams go for power power power. If you want to win SBs fine, but you'll have to do it with 5-category guys like Abreu, Soriano, Jeter, Beltra, etc. If you go with a Pierre or Crawford type, you'll get burned in the rest of the categories. Not because of valuation, but because of what the other teams do. A side benefit of getting a good SS and 2B is that quite often these guys have stolen bases. On the pitching side of things, I like to break the 1250 IP down like this: 3 75 IP closers, and 6 starters who will each pitch about 170 IP. The 3 closers will stay in your lineup permanently, while the starters will rotate in. Because you should be able to get 6 starters who will pitch more than 175 IP, you'll be able to be a little selective - maybe not put in a starter in Coors or when he faces the Yankees. If you like the idea of being very selective with your starts, grab a 7th pitcher and finesse your way to 1250 IP. Because anyone who knows what they're doing will get to 1250 IP, the strikeouts category really becomes a SO/IP category. Although I'm real high on John Thomson this year, he's not a good pick in Yahoo leagues because of his low SO totals. I'd much rather have a Ben Sheets type who you can sit against the better offenses. And yes, although wins aren't very predictable, pitchers on better teams earn more wins. I like to have maybe one pitching stud if available, then fill in with underrated bargains. I usually spend most of my top ten picks on hitters, but there are always a pitcher or two that fall a little too far that I jump on. Keep in mind that the high IP guys (Halladay, Unit, Schilling) aren't worth quite as much, because although their extra innings at good ratios are nice, they're using up IP you could get from other places (damn that IP limit). So, like I said before, proper valuation is the key. Here are my hitter rankings. Remember, stay just ahead of the flow, picking up the players that the rest of the league undervalues. Once you get into the $15ish range with hitters, load up on quality pitchers. Don't be afraid to pick a pitcher that didn't have a spectacular year last year. Pitchers are flukey.
3.10.2004
WHY VALUATION MATTERS One of my favorite aspects of fantasy baseball is the math. Regressing the projections, computing inflation, figuring out dollar values, etc. I often think that I do a little too much of it. But then I get into a draft like last night, and I'm real happy that my dorky hobby helps me do real well with my... dorky hobby. I've participated in a few Yahoo drafts the last couple days, and last night signed up for a 12 team 5x5 league with an odd group of positions - same 23 players as most leagues, minus a catcher, two outfielders, and a pitcher. Not too weird, right? You can just draft like you normally would, except you don't have to worry about finding a second catcher or drafting those pesky mediocre outfielders. Wrong. Thanks to the handy Baseball Prospectus Player Forecast Manager, I could quickly see the rankings for this type of league. (If it was a league I really cared about, and didn't have the PFM, I would have computed the values myself and not trusted the BPro stats, but hey.) It was amazing how the value of middle infielders skyrocketed, while the outfielders weren't worth anything. ARod and Soriano ranked 20 bucks higher than Beltran and Pujols. Nine of the top 14 hitters were middle infielders. Replacement level outfielders? Try Hidalgo, Edmonds, and Larry Walker. Since I know to trust what positional replacement level tells me, I jumped on the middle infielders early and often, worrying about outfielders later. Even catchers aren't all that valuable when you only need one. Three of my first four picks were middle infielders. Soriano, Jeter, Vazquez (some dude started making "stupid Yankee lover" comments here, and then Kent. I was trying to leave the MI spot open for someone who feel too far. But Kent in the fourth round of a league like this was a major steal. Then I went on a pitching run, with an 2 OF and a 3B thrown in - Berkman, Beckett, Contreras, Wolf, Ensberg, Benitez, Kearns, Sheets. My OF and CIs don't look as nice compared to other teams, but they're still above replacement, and my middle infield is rivaled by nobody. Moral: Know the player pool and adjust your values accordingly. (Oh, and by the way, don't draft a catcher as your utility man.) --------- Side note: In Yahoo leagues with default settings, the members of non-Helton 1B mashers club are not first round picks. Maybe late second rounders. Delgado, Thome, Giambi are pretty much the equivalents of Furcal, Boone, Vidro, Rolen, Chavez, etc. Now, since most people don't realize this, you can let these MI and 3B drop a little bit before you take them, but since it's not hard to find 12 good 1B, it doesn't matter a whole lot which one you get. It is a lot better to have Renteria or Kent than Guzman or Kennedy. Hmm, this has gotten me interested in writing a full entry about Yahoo leagues. Stay tuned... 3.08.2004
20 TEAM 5x5 NO FREE AGENT MIXED LEAGUE Do you want to join a league like this? I'm curious to see how a league with 20 teams would turn out. Doesn't sound too different, in terms of player pool depth) from a 10 team AL- or NL-only league, but I think having 20 different teams would make the draft extremely fun and interesting. Because we all have other leagues that are more important, we'll disallow free agent pickups and make the reserve rosters large. If you suffer an injury, you better be able to make a trade or call someone up from reserves. If you want in, and can draft pretty much any weeknight, send me an email by clicking on "Sky" below. We'll start as soon as we get close to 20 people. No money involved. I'M WATCHING BASEBALL It's 70 degrees and sunny, I'm on "winter" break, and I'm watching baseball on TV. Who says you can't be a kid forever? |
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