SkyKing162's Baseblog

A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes.

DIPS Numbers Through June 15

I've finally figured out how to create and post html at an actual website, so now my "daily" DIPS numbers will be available for all to see. Here's a quick rundown of what each number is:

ERA: tried and true Earned Run Average
XERA: Extrapolated Earned Run Average - what you'd expect a pitcher's ERA to be based on his actual component stats (e.g. singles, walks, strikeouts) and league average ER/R rate
$ERA: expected ERA using a pitcher's unadjusted $BB, $SO, and $HR rates combined with his team's average $H, $2B, and $3B rates
dERA: expected ERA using a pitcher's adjusted (to a neutral park) $BB, $SO, and $HR rates combined with MLB-average $H, $2B, and $3B rates. This is the "DIPS ERA."
rdERA: same thing as dERA, but with a pitcher's $BB, $SO, and $HR rates regressed "appropriately" towards the mean. Currently, appropriately means about .3 for $BB, .2 for SO, and .5 for $HR. Only the current season is considered. In the future, I hope to work in a regression rate that's a function of BFP for the current season. And, in the grand scheme of things, the goal is also to incorporate past season performance with current performance to get a good predictor of future performance.

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