A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes.

 
NETruns

I've been thinking a lot lately about the correct theoretical concepts behind win shares. Here's the state of the union:

Claim points for hitting win shares are runs created above replacement. I call them extra runs created. ExtraRC = (RC/out - .5*lgRC/out) * outs.

Claim points for hitting loss shares are runs created below ideal. I call them lacking runs created. LackRC = (1.5*lgRC/out - RC/out) * outs.

Claim points for hitting game shares are expected runs produced. That is, the number of runs expected to be produced given a player's outs and a league-average RC/out rate. I call them total runs created. TotRC = lgRC/out * outs.

Note that extraRC + lackRC = totRC. This is good. This means that win shares + loss shares = game shares.

What's the best metric to use to value players? It should reward players for extraRC and punish them for lackRC. So what better calculation than simply win shares - loss shares, or extraRC - lackRC. I call these net runs created. NETruns = (RC/out - lgRC/out) * outs * 2. That 2 pops into the equation when you run through the algebra of subtracting lackRC from extraRC. It doesn't make a difference when comparing players, just changes the scale a little bit. The issue of leaving the 2 in the equation versus taking it out is comparable to a team being 10 games over .500, but only being 5 games ahead of a .500 team. Both are correct; they just present the information in slightly different ways.

So, we've got our metric of NETShares. It rewards players for quantity and quality compared to average. Let's see some 2003 numbers through June 26:

Top 10 Overall:

Player	XR	OUTS	XR/OUT	extraXR	lackXR	netXR	totalXR
pujols,albert	77	181	.42	60	-28	88	33
delgado,carlos	74	201	.37	56	-19	75	36
bonds,barry	64	152	.42	50	-23	73	28
sheffield,gary	66	189	.35	49	-15	63	34
mora,melvin	56	142	.39	43	-17	60	26
helton,todd	65	211	.31	45	-7	52	38
edmonds,jim	55	179	.31	39	-7	46	32
giambi,jason	59	201	.29	41	-4	45	36
garciaparra,nom	64	230	.28	43	-1	44	42
boone,bret	62	223	.28	42	-2	44	40

Bottom 10 Overall:

Player	XR	OUTS	XR/OUT	extraXR	lackXR	netXR	totalXR
tatis,fernando	11	149	.07	-2	30	-32	27
infante,omar	14	168	.08	-1	32	-33	30
dye,jermaine	6	123	.05	-6	28	-33	22
inge,brandon	10	150	.07	-3	31	-34	27
cora,alex	17	188	.09	0	34	-34	34
ausmus,brad	17	185	.09	0	34	-34	34
matthews,gary	22	216	.10	2	37	-35	39
izturis,cesar	20	208	.10	1	37	-36	38
phillips,brando	16	204	.08	-3	40	-42	37
konerko,paul	11	184	.06	-6	39	-45	33

Top 10 Firstbasemen

Player	XR	OUTS	XR/OUT	extraXR	lackXR	netXR	totalXR
delgado,carlos	74	201	.37	56	-19	75	36
helton,todd	65	211	.31	45	-7	52	38
giambi,jason	59	201	.29	41	-4	45	36
sweeney,mike	49	157	.31	34	-6	40	28
palmeiro,rafael	49	190	.26	32	2	30	34
thome,jim	51	212	.24	32	6	26	38
durazo,erubiel	47	191	.25	30	5	25	35
johnson,nick	27	90	.30	19	-3	22	16
sexson,richie	53	231	.23	32	10	21	42
lee,derrek	50	220	.23	30	10	19	40

Top 10 Secondbasemen

Player	XR	OUTS	XR/OUT	extraXR	lackXR	netXR	totalXR
boone,bret	62	223	.28	42	-2	44	40
vidro,jose	49	186	.27	32	1	31	34
soriano,alfonso	60	253	.24	37	9	28	46
kent,jeff	47	193	.24	30	6	24	35
giles,marcus	46	202	.23	28	9	19	37
durham,ray	38	155	.24	23	5	19	28
cintron,alex	26	99	.26	17	1	16	18
hart,bo	10	17	.60	9	-6	14	3
young,michael	44	213	.21	25	14	10	39
belliard,ronnie	31	148	.21	17	10	8	27

(continued in next post... stupid blogger errors)

Posted by Sky at 11:19 AM | 0 comments