SkyKing162's Baseblog



A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes.


1.25.2004
 
Over- and Under-rated Pitchers

Based on an email I received from a reader (or should I say, the reader of this blog), I decided to pen a little piece on the most under- and over-rated pitchers from 2003. Using my 2003 DIPS numbers (see link to the left), I calculated the difference between each pitcher's actual ERA versus their dERA. Going forward (i.e. projecting 2004), I much prefer rdERA because of the regression involved, but because of that regression, rdERAs get pulled towards league-average, meaning the best and worst pitchers would appear to be the most over-rated and under-rated, respectively. So this study is merely which pitchers, given the skills they showed during 2003, had ERAs most out of line with those skills.

Most Over-rated Pitchers with at least 100 IP:
NAME	         TEA	IP	ERA	dERA	ERA-dERA

Franklin_Ryan SEA 212 3.57 5.22 -1.65
Nomo_Hideo LAN 218.3 3.09 4.25 -1.16
Wells_Kip PIT 197.3 3.28 4.4 -1.12
Halama_John OAK 108.7 4.22 5.18 -0.96
Gonzalez_Jeremi TBA 156.3 3.92 4.87 -0.95
Anderson_Brian CLE 148 3.71 4.62 -0.91
Mota_Guillermo LAN 105 1.97 2.88 -0.91
Hentgen_Pat BAL 155.7 4.16 5.06 -0.9
May_Darrell KCA 210 3.77 4.66 -0.89
Stephenson_Garret SLN 174.3 4.6 5.48 -0.88
Zambrano_Victor TBA 188.3 4.21 5.08 -0.87
Peavy_Jake SDN 194.7 4.11 4.97 -0.86
Ishii_Kazuhisa LAN 147 3.86 4.7 -0.84
Trachsel_Steve NYN 204.7 3.78 4.61 -0.83
Zito_Barry OAK 231.7 3.3 4.11 -0.81
Moyer_Jamie SEA 215 3.27 4.05 -0.78
Hudson_Tim OAK 240 2.7 3.46 -0.76
Oswalt_Roy HOU 127.3 2.97 3.72 -0.75
Ramirez_Horacio ATL 182.3 4 4.72 -0.72
Williams_Jerome SFN 131 3.3 4.01 -0.71
Hernandez_Livan MON 233.3 3.2 3.9 -0.7
Shields_Scot ANA 148.3 2.85 3.52 -0.67
Vargas_Claudio MON 114 4.34 5.01 -0.67
Villone_Ron HOU 106.7 4.13 4.79 -0.66
Padilla_Vicente PHI 208.7 3.62 4.27 -0.65
Webb_Brandon ARI 180.7 2.84 3.4 -0.56
Brown_Kevin LAN 211 2.39 2.93 -0.54
Wood_Kerry CHN 211 3.2 3.74 -0.54
Johnson_Jason BAL 189.7 4.13 4.67 -0.54
Washburn_Jarrod ANA 207.3 4.43 4.95 -0.52
Garland_Jon CHA 191.7 4.51 5.03 -0.52
Many of these guys simply played in good pitcher's parks with good fielders. If they stay on good teams, no problem. But if they switch teams (Kevin Brown, etc), look out.


If we look at all pitchers with at least 50 IP, the "top" 10 looks like this:
NAME        	TEA	IP	ERA	dERA	ERA-dERA

Hasegawa_Shigeto SEA 73 1.48 3.89 -2.41
Davis_Doug MIL 52.3 2.58 4.86 -2.28
Reed_Steve COL 63.3 3.27 5.3 -2.03
Heredia_Felix CIN 72 3 4.79 -1.79
Wendell_Turk PHI 64 3.38 5.06 -1.68
Franklin_Ryan SEA 212 3.57 5.22 -1.65
Hernandez_Roberto ATL 60 4.35 5.84 -1.49
Foulke_Keith OAK 86.7 2.08 3.51 -1.43
Stone_Ricky HOU 83 3.69 4.99 -1.3
Quantrill_Paul LAN 77.3 1.75 3.03 -1.28
Those are some huge discrepencies between actual and deserved ERA. Many of those pitchers have been spotted by lots of other people (Hasegawa, Franklin, and Quantrill especially), but Keither Foulke has been heralded as a major coupe for the Red Sox. I really like Keither Foulke, but he definitely benefitted from the Oakland Coliseum.


How about he most under-rated with at least 100 IP:
NAME	        TEA	IP	ERA	dERA	ERA-dERA

Rusch_Glendon MIL 123.3 6.42 3.83 2.59
Weaver_Jeff NYA 159.3 5.99 4.18 1.81
Lewis_Colby TEX 127 7.3 5.58 1.72
Dempster_Ryan CIN 115.7 6.53 4.95 1.58
Cook_Aaron COL 124 5.95 4.65 1.3
Lidle_Cory TOR 192.7 5.74 4.46 1.28
Kennedy_Joe TBA 133.7 6.13 4.87 1.26
Jimenez_Jose COL 101.7 5.22 4.1 1.12
Lopez_Rodrigo BAL 147 5.82 4.71 1.11
Mays_Joe MIN 130 6.3 5.26 1.04
Bonderman_Jeremy DET 162 5.56 4.6 0.96
Burkett_John BOS 181.7 5.15 4.2 0.95
Bernero_Adam DET 100.7 6.08 5.13 0.95
Traber_Billy CLE 111.7 5.24 4.33 0.91
Dickey_RA TEX 116.7 5.09 4.26 0.83
Hendrickson_Mark TOR 158.3 5.51 4.7 0.81
Estes_Shawn CHN 152.3 5.73 4.93 0.8
Reynolds_Shane ATL 167.3 5.43 4.63 0.8
Riedling_John CIN 101 4.9 4.11 0.79
Dessens_Elmer ARI 175.7 5.07 4.35 0.72
Thomson_John TEX 217 4.85 4.14 0.71
Johnson_Randy ARI 114 4.26 3.6 0.66
Kinney_Matt MIL 190.7 5.19 4.56 0.63
Pettitte_Andy NYA 208.3 4.02 3.4 0.62
Simontacchi_Jason SLN 126.3 5.56 5 0.56
Benson_Kris PIT 105 4.97 4.43 0.54
Maroth_Mike DET 193.3 5.73 5.23 0.5
Escobar_Kelvim TOR 180.3 4.29 3.8 0.49
Many of these guys fit the typical "does DIPS really know what it's talking about" mold - young guys with high $H rates. Before DIPS, many of these guys might have been sent back down to the minors. Maybe they should be. Maybe these guys really aren't good at preventing hits on balls in play. My guess is that some of them will improve (Weaver), but some of them just aren't that good (Rusch). Again, many of this group is under-rated because of their park and fielders they play with. If they remain on the same team, their ERA will once again be higher than it should. If they switch teams, look to acquire them cheeply. Two veteran names pop out at me - Randy Johnson and Andy Pettitte. Both pitchers got worked by their $H number in 2003. If Randy's knee can hold up, he'll be the Randy of old. And the only thing holding me back from jumping on Pettitte's bandwagon is that although he's moving from a horrible fielding team, he's joining a team with a horrible pitcher's park. Watch his $H shoot down, but his $HR shoot up. Top of my head prediction? 3.75 ERA for Pettitte in 2004.

Ok, how about top 10 under-rated with at least 50 IP? Actually, nothing very interesting. Ramiro Mendoza pops up, but other than that the list contains Rusch, Weaver, and crappy relievers who really deserved ERAs in the high 5's rather than the high 6's. Stay away from those.


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