A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes.
Over- and Under-rated Pitchers
Based on an email I received from a reader (or should I say, the reader of this blog), I decided to pen a little piece on the most under- and over-rated pitchers from 2003. Using my 2003 DIPS numbers (see link to the left), I calculated the difference between each pitcher's actual ERA versus their dERA. Going forward (i.e. projecting 2004), I much prefer rdERA because of the regression involved, but because of that regression, rdERAs get pulled towards league-average, meaning the best and worst pitchers would appear to be the most over-rated and under-rated, respectively. So this study is merely which pitchers, given the skills they showed during 2003, had ERAs most out of line with those skills.
Most Over-rated Pitchers with at least 100 IP:
NAME TEA IP ERA dERA ERA-dERAMany of these guys simply played in good pitcher's parks with good fielders. If they stay on good teams, no problem. But if they switch teams (Kevin Brown, etc), look out.
If we look at all pitchers with at least 50 IP, the "top" 10 looks like this:
NAME TEA IP ERA dERA ERA-dERAThose are some huge discrepencies between actual and deserved ERA. Many of those pitchers have been spotted by lots of other people (Hasegawa, Franklin, and Quantrill especially), but Keither Foulke has been heralded as a major coupe for the Red Sox. I really like Keither Foulke, but he definitely benefitted from the Oakland Coliseum.
How about he most under-rated with at least 100 IP:
NAME TEA IP ERA dERA ERA-dERAMany of these guys fit the typical "does DIPS really know what it's talking about" mold - young guys with high $H rates. Before DIPS, many of these guys might have been sent back down to the minors. Maybe they should be. Maybe these guys really aren't good at preventing hits on balls in play. My guess is that some of them will improve (Weaver), but some of them just aren't that good (Rusch). Again, many of this group is under-rated because of their park and fielders they play with. If they remain on the same team, their ERA will once again be higher than it should. If they switch teams, look to acquire them cheeply. Two veteran names pop out at me - Randy Johnson and Andy Pettitte. Both pitchers got worked by their $H number in 2003. If Randy's knee can hold up, he'll be the Randy of old. And the only thing holding me back from jumping on Pettitte's bandwagon is that although he's moving from a horrible fielding team, he's joining a team with a horrible pitcher's park. Watch his $H shoot down, but his $HR shoot up. Top of my head prediction? 3.75 ERA for Pettitte in 2004.
Ok, how about top 10 under-rated with at least 50 IP? Actually, nothing very interesting. Ramiro Mendoza pops up, but other than that the list contains Rusch, Weaver, and crappy relievers who really deserved ERAs in the high 5's rather than the high 6's. Stay away from those.
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