SkyKing162's Baseblog



A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes.


1.25.2004
 
ESPN.com - MLB - Garcia has surgery to repair ruptured eardrums

One of the more bizarre injuries in recent memory. Now, doctors are saying Freddy's ruptured ear drums had no effect on his performance, but you've got to assume they didn't help any, either. Since he tore apart the Yankees in the playoffs a few years ago, Freddy hasn't quite lived up to the hype. But he's not as bad as he showed last year, I don't think. Look for him to be an above-average starter (4.00 ERA) for many more years, with perhaps a year or two more in the 3.50 range. Scientific analysis? No, but... ok, completely unscientific.


 
Over- and Under-rated Pitchers

Based on an email I received from a reader (or should I say, the reader of this blog), I decided to pen a little piece on the most under- and over-rated pitchers from 2003. Using my 2003 DIPS numbers (see link to the left), I calculated the difference between each pitcher's actual ERA versus their dERA. Going forward (i.e. projecting 2004), I much prefer rdERA because of the regression involved, but because of that regression, rdERAs get pulled towards league-average, meaning the best and worst pitchers would appear to be the most over-rated and under-rated, respectively. So this study is merely which pitchers, given the skills they showed during 2003, had ERAs most out of line with those skills.

Most Over-rated Pitchers with at least 100 IP:
NAME	         TEA	IP	ERA	dERA	ERA-dERA

Franklin_Ryan SEA 212 3.57 5.22 -1.65
Nomo_Hideo LAN 218.3 3.09 4.25 -1.16
Wells_Kip PIT 197.3 3.28 4.4 -1.12
Halama_John OAK 108.7 4.22 5.18 -0.96
Gonzalez_Jeremi TBA 156.3 3.92 4.87 -0.95
Anderson_Brian CLE 148 3.71 4.62 -0.91
Mota_Guillermo LAN 105 1.97 2.88 -0.91
Hentgen_Pat BAL 155.7 4.16 5.06 -0.9
May_Darrell KCA 210 3.77 4.66 -0.89
Stephenson_Garret SLN 174.3 4.6 5.48 -0.88
Zambrano_Victor TBA 188.3 4.21 5.08 -0.87
Peavy_Jake SDN 194.7 4.11 4.97 -0.86
Ishii_Kazuhisa LAN 147 3.86 4.7 -0.84
Trachsel_Steve NYN 204.7 3.78 4.61 -0.83
Zito_Barry OAK 231.7 3.3 4.11 -0.81
Moyer_Jamie SEA 215 3.27 4.05 -0.78
Hudson_Tim OAK 240 2.7 3.46 -0.76
Oswalt_Roy HOU 127.3 2.97 3.72 -0.75
Ramirez_Horacio ATL 182.3 4 4.72 -0.72
Williams_Jerome SFN 131 3.3 4.01 -0.71
Hernandez_Livan MON 233.3 3.2 3.9 -0.7
Shields_Scot ANA 148.3 2.85 3.52 -0.67
Vargas_Claudio MON 114 4.34 5.01 -0.67
Villone_Ron HOU 106.7 4.13 4.79 -0.66
Padilla_Vicente PHI 208.7 3.62 4.27 -0.65
Webb_Brandon ARI 180.7 2.84 3.4 -0.56
Brown_Kevin LAN 211 2.39 2.93 -0.54
Wood_Kerry CHN 211 3.2 3.74 -0.54
Johnson_Jason BAL 189.7 4.13 4.67 -0.54
Washburn_Jarrod ANA 207.3 4.43 4.95 -0.52
Garland_Jon CHA 191.7 4.51 5.03 -0.52
Many of these guys simply played in good pitcher's parks with good fielders. If they stay on good teams, no problem. But if they switch teams (Kevin Brown, etc), look out.


If we look at all pitchers with at least 50 IP, the "top" 10 looks like this:
NAME        	TEA	IP	ERA	dERA	ERA-dERA

Hasegawa_Shigeto SEA 73 1.48 3.89 -2.41
Davis_Doug MIL 52.3 2.58 4.86 -2.28
Reed_Steve COL 63.3 3.27 5.3 -2.03
Heredia_Felix CIN 72 3 4.79 -1.79
Wendell_Turk PHI 64 3.38 5.06 -1.68
Franklin_Ryan SEA 212 3.57 5.22 -1.65
Hernandez_Roberto ATL 60 4.35 5.84 -1.49
Foulke_Keith OAK 86.7 2.08 3.51 -1.43
Stone_Ricky HOU 83 3.69 4.99 -1.3
Quantrill_Paul LAN 77.3 1.75 3.03 -1.28
Those are some huge discrepencies between actual and deserved ERA. Many of those pitchers have been spotted by lots of other people (Hasegawa, Franklin, and Quantrill especially), but Keither Foulke has been heralded as a major coupe for the Red Sox. I really like Keither Foulke, but he definitely benefitted from the Oakland Coliseum.


How about he most under-rated with at least 100 IP:
NAME	        TEA	IP	ERA	dERA	ERA-dERA

Rusch_Glendon MIL 123.3 6.42 3.83 2.59
Weaver_Jeff NYA 159.3 5.99 4.18 1.81
Lewis_Colby TEX 127 7.3 5.58 1.72
Dempster_Ryan CIN 115.7 6.53 4.95 1.58
Cook_Aaron COL 124 5.95 4.65 1.3
Lidle_Cory TOR 192.7 5.74 4.46 1.28
Kennedy_Joe TBA 133.7 6.13 4.87 1.26
Jimenez_Jose COL 101.7 5.22 4.1 1.12
Lopez_Rodrigo BAL 147 5.82 4.71 1.11
Mays_Joe MIN 130 6.3 5.26 1.04
Bonderman_Jeremy DET 162 5.56 4.6 0.96
Burkett_John BOS 181.7 5.15 4.2 0.95
Bernero_Adam DET 100.7 6.08 5.13 0.95
Traber_Billy CLE 111.7 5.24 4.33 0.91
Dickey_RA TEX 116.7 5.09 4.26 0.83
Hendrickson_Mark TOR 158.3 5.51 4.7 0.81
Estes_Shawn CHN 152.3 5.73 4.93 0.8
Reynolds_Shane ATL 167.3 5.43 4.63 0.8
Riedling_John CIN 101 4.9 4.11 0.79
Dessens_Elmer ARI 175.7 5.07 4.35 0.72
Thomson_John TEX 217 4.85 4.14 0.71
Johnson_Randy ARI 114 4.26 3.6 0.66
Kinney_Matt MIL 190.7 5.19 4.56 0.63
Pettitte_Andy NYA 208.3 4.02 3.4 0.62
Simontacchi_Jason SLN 126.3 5.56 5 0.56
Benson_Kris PIT 105 4.97 4.43 0.54
Maroth_Mike DET 193.3 5.73 5.23 0.5
Escobar_Kelvim TOR 180.3 4.29 3.8 0.49
Many of these guys fit the typical "does DIPS really know what it's talking about" mold - young guys with high $H rates. Before DIPS, many of these guys might have been sent back down to the minors. Maybe they should be. Maybe these guys really aren't good at preventing hits on balls in play. My guess is that some of them will improve (Weaver), but some of them just aren't that good (Rusch). Again, many of this group is under-rated because of their park and fielders they play with. If they remain on the same team, their ERA will once again be higher than it should. If they switch teams, look to acquire them cheeply. Two veteran names pop out at me - Randy Johnson and Andy Pettitte. Both pitchers got worked by their $H number in 2003. If Randy's knee can hold up, he'll be the Randy of old. And the only thing holding me back from jumping on Pettitte's bandwagon is that although he's moving from a horrible fielding team, he's joining a team with a horrible pitcher's park. Watch his $H shoot down, but his $HR shoot up. Top of my head prediction? 3.75 ERA for Pettitte in 2004.

Ok, how about top 10 under-rated with at least 50 IP? Actually, nothing very interesting. Ramiro Mendoza pops up, but other than that the list contains Rusch, Weaver, and crappy relievers who really deserved ERAs in the high 5's rather than the high 6's. Stay away from those.


1.23.2004
 
Masters of Fantasy Baseball Forum -> Player Valuation

This is a great thread about proper valuation in fantasy baseball. It starts out with the basic replacement-level concept and progresses to a high-quality discussion about the relative values of hitting versus pitching and even the relative values of the individual scoring categories. And the best part is that it's not done yet. Head on over, read up, and contribute the next brilliant post.

Rotojunkie definitely has the highest quantity of good threads, but Mastersball holds a monopoly on the truly great threads.


1.11.2004
 
Rotoworld.com:
"The New York Daily News is reporting that Vladimir Guerrero will sign a five-year, $70 million contract with the Angels. This wouldn't have come as a surprise a couple of months ago, but if it's true, the Angels came out of nowhere to pull this off now. The deal could mean that Garret Anderson will become available in trade talks. Finding a team willing to take Darin Erstad's contract would be a better option, but the most likely scenario is that Erstad will be moved to first base, sending Anderson to center and Jose Guillen to left. "

Wow, this came out of left - I mean right - field. The Angels have gone crazy this year signing free agents. Best case, they win the division and put up a solid fight against the Yanks and Sox for the pennant. Worst case, Colon's average, Escobar stinks it up, and Guillen goes back to pre-2003 form. What's most likely to happen? I think the Angels will challenge the A's for the division title, but come up just short. And because of the Beasts in the East, fail to qualify for the Wild Card, spurring Bud Selig to start talking about adding two more Wild Cards.

And what do they do with the extra outfielder? I think the Angels would be smart to play Anderson in center; from the defensive metrics I trust most, he seems to be a very very good defensive player. But does that bump Erstad to first (please, no) or does it prompt the Angels to trade him (yes yes yes)? He's due about $8 million in 2004, and I'm sure the Angels could do just as well at first base with a much cheaper option. Any chance they could trade Erstad for a prospect or two, and spend that money on a year of Pudge? Wow, that would propel the Angels past the A's, I think.

Vlad in an Angels uniform? I definitely didn't see that one coming.


1.10.2004
 
SkyKing162's DIPS Page

Will Carroll's reporting that the Astros have convinced Roger Clemens to pitch for them next year. Clemens, after catching a lot of flak from the sabrmetric community for his "lucky" 2001 record of 20-3, has actually been underrated the past two years. Actually, except for their W/L records, many of the Yankee pitchers have been underrated in recent years, due to the crappy Yankee defense. Here are the 2003 numbers for Yankee starters:
NAME            TEA  IP     ERA   XERA  $ERA  dERA  rdERA  $H    $BB   $SO   $HR  

Mussina_Mike NYA 209.7 3.43 3.05 3.37 3.22 3.52 .284 .047 .238 .035
Contreras_Jose NYA 71 3.30 2.80 3.38 3.29 3.65 .264 .102 .279 .022
Pettitte_Andy NYA 208.3 4.02 3.99 3.65 3.40 3.69 .320 .056 .213 .032
Clemens_Roger NYA 211.7 3.83 3.63 3.82 3.65 3.82 .290 .066 .233 .038
Wells_David NYA 213 4.14 4.12 4.20 3.96 4.21 .297 .023 .118 .032
Weaver_Jeff NYA 159.3 5.99 5.59 4.54 4.18 4.40 .343 .064 .137 .027

I like to look at the rdERA column, which gives my best guess at the true talent of a pitcher based on his 2003 performance, adjusted for park and defense, and regressed towards the MLB mean. All Yankee pitchers except Weaver have rdERAs similar to their actual ERAs, which shows that most actually deserved lower ERAs (look at the dERA column!) Mussina, Pettitte, and Clemens were very good pitchers in 2003, well above average. Houston doesn't have a great defense, either, and their ballpark is less friently to pitchers than Yankees Stadium, but Pettitte and Clemens will both be assets. Would you rather have Clemens pitching or try out Tim Redding again? Yeah, me too.

Oh, and as for Carroll's comment that Clemens/Wood matchups, they were pretty similar pitchers in 2003:
NAME            TEA  IP     ERA   XERA  $ERA  dERA  rdERA  $H    $BB   $SO   $HR  

Clemens_Roger NYA 211.7 3.83 3.63 3.82 3.65 3.82 .290 .066 .233 .038
Wood_Kerry CHN 211 3.20 3.38 3.60 3.74 3.73 .269 .113 .347 .048

Ok, Wood was a little more extreme - more strikeouts, more walk, and more homeruns. Wood has the decisive advantage in traditional ERA, and a very slight advantage in dERA and rdERA. Two very good pitchers, and FOX will go crazy plugging their dramatic matchups. Just don't expect any 1-0 complete game duels. Appreciate Clemens and Wood for the pitchers they are: an aging upper-tier Hall of Famer, and a fireballer who's made a great comeback from Tommy John surgey.


1.09.2004
 
Imagine by John Lennon

Imagine there's no heaven,
It's easy if you try,
No hell below us,
Above us only sky,
Imagine all the people
living for today...

Imagine there's no countries,
It isn't hard to do,
Nothing to kill or die for,
No religion too,
Imagine all the people
living life in peace...

Imagine no possesions,
I wonder if you can,
No need for greed or hunger,
A brotherhood of man,
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world...

You may say I'm a dreamer,
but I'm not the only one,
I hope some day you'll join us,
And the world will live as one.


1.08.2004
 
SkyKing162's DIPS Page

The final 2003 numbers are up. Finally. Enjoy 'em and drop me an email if if you've got questions or suggestions.

I'll post my thoughts on some of the interesting pitchers down the road.


1.07.2004
 
Baseball Prospectus | Rumors

The whole thing:
"Baseball Prospectus Acquisition Rumor

There are rumors bouncing around the internet that Baseball Prospectus has been sold. These rumors are incorrect.

Baseball Prospectus has not signed any such acquisition agreement, and remains focused on providing the best possible baseball content to its readers and listeners."

Verrrrrry interesting. Not a very strong denial. I'm going to do some google searching and see where these rumors are being reported...


1.05.2004
 
What You Can't Say

I'll take a page from Will Carroll's blog he writes with some other dudes and post a link to an intellectual, non-subject specific essay. I love things that make me think - might even bring up a point I've thought of before, but has never made it out of my mouth. After reading, anyone have any real good ideas on things that can't be said in current American culture?


 
ESPN.com: OLY - Tabled tennis: Pingpong, romance don't mix

I played ping pong on a club team my first two years of college. We travelled down to Boston a few times a year to compete against BU, Harvard, and Wellesley. The stereotype is that lots of Asians play ping pong, and our matches confirmed that. Surprisingly, our team only had one Asian guy on it, while the others probably had five non-Asians between them all. The only females from any team were on the Wellesley roster, and their best player consistently beat up on all the other number ones. She had a rating in the 2000's in scale that maxed out at 3000 - similar to chess rankings where each match results in players gaining/losing rankings points.

Ping pong's a great sport, extremely quick, and surprisingly draining. Even the best basement player would get wasted by anyone on my club team. When I first joined I was amazed at how much of the game spin is. Even the hardest shot can be returned by stepping back from the table a little bit. With the advent of super-grippy rubber paddles in the seventies, a new shot called the 'loop' became, and has stayed, extremely popular. Instead of hitting the ball, a player barely grazes it and pulls it up and over the net. The shot requires an extremely fast swing, but the ball doesn't travel all that fast. Instead, all the energy from the swing is converted into spin. If the opponent attempts to hit a normal drive return, the intense topspin will cause the ball to shoot straight up in the air. The only ways to return the loop are to either aim straight down, swing with intense underspin, or loop it back (which is next to impossible.) If you ever get the chance to play ping pong with someone that really plays Ping Pong, you'll be amazed.

It was also refreshing to read this in the article:
"Media reports said Ma Lin was Bai's boyfriend but avoided punishment because he is expected to be a key player in Athens. Ma's doubles partner Wang Hao wasn't punished either, despite being identified as involved with Fan Ying.

Li, the association official, acknowledged that higher-ranked players were treated leniently.

'We let the more important person (in the couples) stay because they have the heavier burdens and responsibilities,' Li said."

Can you imagine a college football coach saying, "Well, we caught both Smith and Miller smoking a little pot during the off-season, but since Smith rides the bench and Miller's our star QB, we're only going to cut Smith." Happens all the time, though. Might as well be straight forward about it.