A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes.

 
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Will Carroll's reporting that the Astros have convinced Roger Clemens to pitch for them next year. Clemens, after catching a lot of flak from the sabrmetric community for his "lucky" 2001 record of 20-3, has actually been underrated the past two years. Actually, except for their W/L records, many of the Yankee pitchers have been underrated in recent years, due to the crappy Yankee defense. Here are the 2003 numbers for Yankee starters:

NAME            TEA  IP     ERA   XERA  $ERA  dERA  rdERA  $H    $BB   $SO   $HR  

Mussina_Mike    NYA  209.7  3.43  3.05  3.37  3.22  3.52  .284  .047  .238  .035  

Contreras_Jose  NYA  71     3.30  2.80  3.38  3.29  3.65  .264  .102  .279  .022  

Pettitte_Andy   NYA  208.3  4.02  3.99  3.65  3.40  3.69  .320  .056  .213  .032  

Clemens_Roger   NYA  211.7  3.83  3.63  3.82  3.65  3.82  .290  .066  .233  .038  

Wells_David     NYA  213    4.14  4.12  4.20  3.96  4.21  .297  .023  .118  .032   

Weaver_Jeff     NYA  159.3  5.99  5.59  4.54  4.18  4.40  .343  .064  .137  .027

I like to look at the rdERA column, which gives my best guess at the true talent of a pitcher based on his 2003 performance, adjusted for park and defense, and regressed towards the MLB mean. All Yankee pitchers except Weaver have rdERAs similar to their actual ERAs, which shows that most actually deserved lower ERAs (look at the dERA column!) Mussina, Pettitte, and Clemens were very good pitchers in 2003, well above average. Houston doesn't have a great defense, either, and their ballpark is less friently to pitchers than Yankees Stadium, but Pettitte and Clemens will both be assets. Would you rather have Clemens pitching or try out Tim Redding again? Yeah, me too.

Oh, and as for Carroll's comment that Clemens/Wood matchups, they were pretty similar pitchers in 2003:

NAME            TEA  IP     ERA   XERA  $ERA  dERA  rdERA  $H    $BB   $SO   $HR  

Clemens_Roger   NYA  211.7  3.83  3.63  3.82  3.65  3.82  .290  .066  .233  .038

Wood_Kerry      CHN  211    3.20  3.38  3.60  3.74  3.73  .269  .113  .347  .048

Ok, Wood was a little more extreme - more strikeouts, more walk, and more homeruns. Wood has the decisive advantage in traditional ERA, and a very slight advantage in dERA and rdERA. Two very good pitchers, and FOX will go crazy plugging their dramatic matchups. Just don't expect any 1-0 complete game duels. Appreciate Clemens and Wood for the pitchers they are: an aging upper-tier Hall of Famer, and a fireballer who's made a great comeback from Tommy John surgey.

Posted by Sky at 12:27 PM | 0 comments