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 A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes. 
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3.31.2004
CONTEXT AND SCARCITY If a baseball team wins 80 games, is that good? Depends. Is this a major league baseball team during a 162 game season? Is this a major league baseball team during a strike-shortened season? Is this a major league baseball team over an entire decade? Is this a little league squad that only played 80 games over one summer? If a baseball player (in MLB) hits 30 homers, is that good? Is it as good if he plays in Colorado? Is it as good if he plays in Detroit? Is it good if he only batted 200 times? I think you get the idea. Whatever happens on the baseball field is context dependant. During a MLB season, many things tend to cancel each other out. Nobody bats against Pedro every game. Nobody hits in Colorado every game (although half the time is pretty significant.) There are many things in "real" Major League Baseball that are consistant year to year and aren't given second thought. The number of players per team, the numbers of teams in the league, and the way the game is scored (more runs win) are just a few examples. In fantasy baseball, however, these things can change. And most people don't adequately adjust their strategy for different situations. Is a fantasy league head-to-head or rotisserie? Is it 5x5, 4x4, or some crazy 8x6 configuration? Are you playing against 8 other people, 12 other people, or 20 other people? Do you have to draft five outfielders and two catchers, or two outfielders and five catchers? When you start changing around the number of teams, and the number of players per team, the amount of players that will end up on someone's team changes. The total number of players drafted and the number of players at each position determine how you value those players. And that, my friend, is the most misunderstood (or perhaps the most ignored) aspect of fantasy baseball. Eventually I may post something longer, but here's the quick and dirty explanation on how to value players: Find the replacement level at each position. By replacement level, I mean the amount of HRs, AVG, RBIs, RUNs, whatever, that you'd get at each position if you had to settle for the worst player picked. For each player above replacement at each position, add up their stats above replacement. All of the stats combined from every player slated to be drafted make up the draftable pool of stats. Take the amount of money to be spent per category ($260*hit-split*#teams/#hiting-categories) and divide it by the draftable stats in each category. This gives you a category $/stat ratio. For each player, multiply his stats above replacement by the category $/stat ratio to find the amount of money he earns in that category. Add up the values in each category to get each player's total value. Don't pay for what you can get for free, and pay for stats according to what percentage of the overall pool each player provides. 10 homeruns is awful from a player when you can get a 15 homerun player from the free agent pool and there are 1500 total homeruns to be drafted. But if you can't get anything more than 5 homeruns from the free agent pool and there are only 500 homeruns to be drafted (circa 50 years ago), then that player has a lot of value. Are things really that different between a 12 team mixed league and a 12 team "only" league? What's this scarcity thing all about? I mean, isn't it harder to find a quality SS in a deep league than a shallow league? You can't draft a bad player when picking from both leagues. This goes back to the idea of context. Carl Everett was pretty good in an AL-only league last year. Pretty studly in fact. But in a mixed league, he actually loses a lot of value. Why? Because he's not that much better than replacement level for that size league. If it's true that anyone can find a pretty good outfielder, then in order to win, you need to have players better than "pretty good." Ok, so let's talk actual numbers. Here are replacement levels for four different groups of players, based on 2003 stats in a 12 team 5x5 mixed league. Traditional 14 hitter lineups are used.
What does that table mean? Well, for example, a catcher will have, on average, 40 fewer RUNs, 40 fewer RBIs, and 11 fewer HRs than a firstbasemen with equal value. That's a fact. How much more would you pay for a player with eight extra homeruns? That's how much more you should pay for the privelege of moving a firstbasemen over to shortstop. Throw in the thirty extra RBIs and ten extra RUNs you'd get from the move, and you've got yourself a significant position scarcity effect. Let's look at the same table, this time for a 24 team mixed league. This simulates a 12 team "only" league, but is easier on me because I don't have to remove half the players from my list, and also removes the flukish differences between the AL and NL player pools.
What do you know... each position has replacement levels that are almost exactly the same. Only a difference of three HRs, thirteen RUNS, and fourteen RBIs. Position eligibilty is not as significant in deeper leagues, although it still affects value to some extent. How do the top players compare between the two size leagues - do their rankings stay the same? 12 Team League: Soriano ARod Sheffield Pujols Beltran Lopez Renteria Pierre Boone Garciaparra Helton Bonds Podsednik Ichiro Wilson Wells Lee Ramirez Delgado Furcal Crawford Posada IRod 24 Team League: Pujols Pierre Sheffield Beltran Soriano ARod Renteria Podsednik Ichiro Helton Crawford Bonds Nomar Boone Wells Ramirez Lee Lopez Abreu Delgado Those are similar lists, but in very different orders. As was shown with the replacement levels, the middle infielders and catchers lose ground to the outfielders and corner men going from a 12 team to 24 team league. It's also interesting to note that players at the same position can flip-flop rank order. Why is that? Because the player pool changes. Adding in more players alters the total number of each stat available to be drafted. Flooding the draftable player pool with more SBs relative to HRs decreases the value of each SB relative to each HR. Finally, let's take a look at the SB versus HR issue. So many people out there don't believe Juan Pierre, Carl Crawford, and others like them are worth so much. Listen, there aren't many SBs available. When a player has such a huge chunk of the pool, they're worth a lot of money. To paraphrase Lawr Michaels from the MLB experts draft, a category is a category. It doesn't matter if you get your points from the ERA category, the HR category, or the SB category. In a 24 team mixed league, there are 2700 draftable HRs versus only 1600 draftable SBs. For every SB drafted, there are 1.6 HRs drafted. So a 60 SB freak like Pierre is like having a 96 HR power hitter. Can you imagine having a hitter on your team with 96 HRs? Yikes. Sure, the power hitters usually also huge RUN and RBI numbers, adding to their value, but the value advantage in those categories is nothing compared to the SB (50 cents each) versus HR (30 cents each) advantage. Add in a solid AVG and RUNS, and you've got yourself a speedy fantasy stud. As always, if you've got questions, want more info, or just want to invite me into your fantasy league, email me. 3.29.2004
MLB EXPERT DRAFT I thought I'd jot down some interesting notes as I watch/listen to the MLB expert draft. It's a 12 team mixed 5x5 league with no transactions and a $1000 first place prize. Round 1 - Most people will think the Renteria/Tejada/Rolen picks were crazy. Frankly I think they were taken too high, but not as much as people think. Renteria was probaby the best of the picks. Tejada, I don't like. He has the power edge, but the SBs and AVG aren't big assets. Third base is deeper than SS, and there are a lot of young, underrated guys I'd be willing to settle for later in the draft - thus Rolen's a little shakey. Darn, I usually try to stand up for my Mastersball guys. I'm currently in a discussion over at Rotojunkie about the Renteria pick (and evidently Pierre, too). I'm definitely erring on the side of pro-Renteria/Pierre, but Sosa/Halladay are definitely not better picks than either one. - Again, I'm surprised Soriano fell that far. I'd definitely take him number 3 ahead of Helton, and probably ahead of Pujols as well. That power/speed combination from the 2B position is deadly. Add in quality RBIs/RUNs and the possibility of a .300 AVG in Texas and he's the man! Does anyone really think Pujols will hit .370 again? - Schilling might be a reach, but I really like him. A 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 250 Ks, and 18 WINS is not even his ceiling. - Vlad was taken too high. With his injury last year, he's likely to not steal more than 15 bases, let alone be healthy for the whole year. - Surprised they weren't taken in the first round: Bonds & Pedro. I have a feeling that Jeter will also be a steal wherever he's taken. Is there a huge difference between him in a full year versus Edgar Renteria? Round 2 - Whoa, a "snake-like" draft in "inverse order." Do they really think non-fantasy players are actually watching this? - Orlando Cabrera: With last year's stats, he's worth being taken here. But his career's been up and down and I don't think you can necessarily expect .300/20/20 - Nomar Garciaparra: Except for the injury, he's my second-best shortstop behind ARod. I have no idea what this injury means or how to account for the risk. Could be a steal or a bust. - Eric Chavez: Still has room for improvement, but won't necessarily get significantly better. Oakland park/lineup limits the AVG and RUN/RBI opportunities. - Bret Boone: MLB.com won't mention the 'roids, but... - Jeff Kent: Hmm, can I have his 2000 season? He'll continue to age, he's got no speed, but he does have the 2B thing going for him. Probably a reach. - Juan Pierre: Mediocre baseball player, but a fantasy stud. SBs and AVG are the two categories one player can really dominate in. Pierre does that in SBs and to a lesser extent AVG. But no, Ron, you do not have 100 SBs between Renteria and Pierre. - Derek Jeter: I've got a good feeling this year... .325/15/35/110/80. Just as good as the other non-ARod/Soriano MI, and many many picks later - Carlos Delgado: 1Bs get hit the hardest in mixed leagues. There are just so many good ones that they all lose tons of value. Yes, there are tons of good outfielders, but you need five of them, versus two 1B at the most. Add in the fact that 2003 was the max for Delgado, this is a reach. - Rafael Furcal: Ok. His AVG and RUNs will regress, but he might run a lot more. Why would you draft a SS ahead of normal just because others already have a SS. It means you can wait LONGER because the other guys are looking elsewhere. - Pedro Martinez: Seen as a big injury risk, but he's shown to be a consistent injury risk. You can count on 30 great starts every year. Project it, value it, and pick it where the numbers fall. Good pick. - Magglio Ordonez: No monster category, but no weaknesses. 2003 wasn't his best, but don't judge a player just on the previous season. Kreutzer had him ranked seventh, which is way too high. At this point, not a bad pick. - Roy Halladay: I love Hallday as a pitcher. He racks up lots of innings, but because he's efficient, he's not an injury risk. Fantasy-wise, he's a little overrated. Good, but not great, ERA/WHIP, good SOs only because of the IP, and decent win-potential. Most people would have taken him well before this point, but I think it's an appropriate spot for Halladay. Vazquez and Mussina should earn similar value, but will probably not be picked for a while. Round 3 - Barry Bonds: Sure, there are the steroid and age issues, but you still need to base your projection on the last three years. People forget about how good his AVG is, in addition to the monster power. A good deal here. - Bobby Abreu: If my name was Robert, I'd ask people to stop calling me Bobby at age 14. Bob Abreu is underrated. He gives you some of everything, thus flying under the radar. Beltran lite. Good pick. - Ichiro!: Better AVG & power than Pierre, but still not enough SBs to make up the value difference. Solid pick. - Kerry Wood: Good ERA, great SOs, good win-potential, but the walks drag down (up?) the WHIP. Solid pick. - Gary Sheffield: I'm surprised he fell this far, but I wouldn't have taken him earlier. He won't repeat last year, but the Yankee offense won't let the counting stats fall too far. The thumb is an x-factor. - Marcus Giles: Great, underrated baseball player, but fantasy-wise he's not that great. Good AVG, solid power and counting stats for a MI, and throws in some SBs. But I don't think he's any better than last year. I'd have waited a little more. - Hank Blalock: I see big things from Hank. Power should keep developing. No speed limits his value. - Vernon Wells: Why does everyone love this guy after just one very good year? Sure, he's very good, but the AVG isn't guaranteed to stay high, his OBP is AVG dependant, and "RBI machine" is really a skill. But still, at this point he's a solid pick. - Preston Wilson: Who cares about the strikeouts. He showed he's a fantasy stud last year in Colorado. Just gotta worry about the injury. - Mark Prior: A great gamble here. Might only miss a couple weeks. Then again, with as much as Dusty pitches him, he might not be healthy all year. If I were him, I'd pitch for a couple months, give myself an injury in July, and then come back strong for the stretch run in August. - Jim Thome: Hate that AVG. His best years are behind him and he'll just keep regressing. - Richie Sexson: ARZ's a better hitters park than MIL. Richie has as much power as Thome at this point and I like him better overall. - Get ready for more "inverse drafting" in round four! Round 4 - Carl Crawford: Similar to Juan Pierre, just without the proven track record. Might even flash a little power. - Garrett Anderson: I've actually been surprised how low he's been taken in leagues this year, and appropriately so. Anderson's traditionally been very overrated, then was so overrated he was underrated, but now he might actually be so underrated that he's underrated. Anyways, very solid outfielder. The kind of pick that helps your team, but you don't have fun making. - Sammy Sosa: Health? 'Roids? Age? Mediocre 2003? Lots of downward signs, but he has to rebound, right? I think he will, but not to the Sammy of old. Many people will think he's a steal here, but declining AVG and lack of SBs limit his upside, even if the power comes back. - Jason Giambi: 2003 was an "off" year for Giambi, but it was still pretty good. I see a rebound, and if so, is a better option than some of the first basemen picked before him. Remember, he hit for very good AVG in Oakland. I subbed in a mixed league this past Sunday and Aubrey Huff went for more than Giambi. Guys, wake up. You're not buying 2003 stats. (By the way, I'm interested in a retro draft, if anyone plans on doing one.) Moving on... - Tim Hudson: Solid pitcher. Good spot. - Placido Polanco: MLB.com didn't have him rated. Don't know which is dumber, Polanco in the fourth, or not even having him on the draft board. He's quite definitely underrated, but this? An aspect of drafts that gets ignored too much is the fact that players you think are underrated will get passed on by others. You need know when other teams will jump in and grab a player. Shandler obviously really likes Polanco. There's got to be a few others at similar value that are more popular. Why not grab one of them, and take the chance than Polanco drop another round or two. You lose a buck or two if Polanco gets drafted, but if you get him two rounds later (which probably has a 50% chance of happening), you gain $5 to $6. Let's see, risk $2 to gain $5 at 50/50 odds? Yup, I'll take that any day of the week. - Scott Podsednik: MLB.com ranked him 102. Right. Tons of SB and good AVG, but the scouts think it was a fluke. I'd probably agree. Think Dave Roberts. - Roy Oswalt: Definitely his spot to go. Big upside here. - Derrek Lee: The 1B with speed. Numbers should go up a little playing in CHI, but not a ton. Still think the 1Bs are overrated in this size league. - Mark Mulder: Stress fracture in the hip, just getting back into form. Big risk with big upside. Mulder's the biggest strikeout pitcher of the Big 3. I had him pegged as having a huge year last year, so naturally he's on my AL-only team this year. - Randy Johnson: Could be a huge steal here. Like I posted in the entry below, I foresee 30 Randy-like starts this year. - Jorge Posada: He and IRod should battle for top catcher honors in MLB this year. Many will grab Javy Lopez or Mike Piazza, but these guys are better picks. - Notes: Besides Gagne, no other closers went in the first four rounds. I would have guessed that the big guns - Smoltz, Wagner, and Rivera would be gone. Evidently all of these experts read my entry on how to win public Yahoo leauges and are waiting to snatch up the secure second tier closers than fall too far (Cordero, Benitez, Baez, Riske, Rhodes, Borowski, Guardado, Urbina, Dotel.) I AM IN LOVE WITH A GROUP OF MEN That was going to be the title of the entry about my team in the RotoJunkie United Rotisserie Baseball League (5x5 NL-only, 12 teams), back when i reall really reall really liked my team. I'm sticking with the headline even though my infatuation has since cooled off (as I'll explain below). I still like me chances this year, though, especially considering... The Off-Season I tried to get my AL-only league to let me keep all the players I lost from my NL-only league this off-season, but they wouldn't go for it. Gone from Doug and Sky's Get Buff Team in the RJURBL were Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown, Mark Redman, Rondell White, Mark Bellhorn, and Robert Fick. Not that they were all at keepable prices, but that mass exodus seriously hurt my keeper list. Add in the fact that I traded away solid keepers in Ramon Castro, Ben Sheets, and Marcus Giles to solidify my second place finish last year, my keepers were just about the worst in the league. I ended up trading Isringhausen for Wigginton $6, and also kept BGiles $35, RSanders $12, RFurcal $17, Joe Borowski $5, and JSeo $7. Looking back, Giles was no cheaper than I could have gotten him at the inflated keeper auction, and I wish I had the $7 from Seo to spend on another hitter, but oh well. There were teams with 10 solid MLB keepers along with a few minor league keepers they'll plug right into their starting lineup this year. I was definitely behind the eight-ball going into... The Auction My strategy, to make up for keeper-suckiness, was to go stars-and-scrubs, focus on hitting, and fill in with cheap underrated pitchers. Finding breakout pitching has always been a strength of mine, and I planned on taking advantage of that gift. Hitting inflation was about 25% and pitching inflation was about 35%, making the hitter-heavy approach an even better idea. As usual, things didn't go according to plan, and fortunately another strength of mine is adjusting on the fly. I grabbed Benitez early at $28. He's always gotten a bad rap as a closer that "just isn't clutch enough." Whatever. His ERA is always good, he strikes people out, and he's definitely the closer for the Marlins. Coupled with Joe Bo, I'll finish near the top of the saves category for only $33. I also grabbed Randy Johnson early on for $26. This was an amount beyond what I had originally told myself I would go. His ERA from last year was inflated due to bad luck ($H was .348) and his knee injury. I foresee the usual Unit domination this year, although he may miss some games the second half of the season due to pain. If you didn't have any cartiledge in your knee, you'd sit out a few games, too. Looking back, this move was a little risky, but could pay off big time. By this point, my "don't spend much on pitching" strategy was out the door. Two of my biggest break-out candidates this year are Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn. They were both "can't-miss" prospects with the Reds who had off-years for two different reasons. Kearns tore the cover off the ball early, then got hurt. Dunn tore the cover off the ball in between whiffing 126 times. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn rebound to an AVG in the .275 range with 40+ HRs, 100+ RUNs/RBIs, and 10-15 SB. I hugged my computer when I managed to land him for $19. I hate to think about how high I would have chased him. Kearns, unfortunately, was a keeper, so I couldn't throw wads of money his way My only other big buy was Luis Gonzalez at $22. Frankly, with his AVG and power, he's worth more than this. The injury scared people off and I was able to get a guy below actual value, let alone inflated value. Another risk, but I had to take them. Rounding out the team are CJohnson $10, BAusmus $3, BBuchanan $6, TZeile $1, KGinter $4, BHart $1, JRivera $8, RCedeno $5, WWilliams $13, RWolf $17, JWeaver $11, MKinney $1, and DDreifort $3. Quick thoughts: Ausmus sucks, but at least he's got the full-time job - he's actually worth a couple bucks more than that. Zeile's bad, and Hart will probably be sent down, so I need to find two offensive replacements, minimum. Ginter's ok, and has a lot of upside. I unfortunately thought Rivera and Cedeno would be getting more playing time than they actually will be and overspent by a couple bucks. I like Wolf, and since a lot of similar pitchers went for more, $17 isn't bad. With a good two months or so, he's prime trade bait for another offensive bat. The Kinney/Dreifort combo could hurt, but I ended up with a few capable reserve pitchers, so those two spots shouldn't be total black holes. I kept anticipating Weaver to turn things around last year, and the move to LA has only increased my optimism. I had to leave the auction a little early because of an SAT course commitment, so a random poster from Mastersball, Tyler, finished things up. He didn't have much to work with, and was the person who got Zeile, Buchanan, Hart, Kinney, and Dreifort, along with picking all the reserves. Not pretty, but some upside if you ignore Zeile. Here are the reserves: EDessens, PWilson, RMadson, RDempster, JStokes, JHanrahan, SSparks, and BBullington. Outside of Stokes, I'd never heard of any of the prospects, but others seemed to think they were ok. Looks like Madson might stick with the Phillies in the bullpen. Unfortunately, there's no hitting help here, so I'll have to rely heavily on free agents and the trade scene. Sure, Dessens 2002 was flukey, but his 2003 dERA was 4.30. I'll take that in a heartbeat. In fact, my team has lots of... 2004 Potential Ok, there are a lot of risks. But that's the idea. With the keepers I had coming into 2004, I shouldn't have stood a chance this year. If my risks pan out, I can compete for the title. If some flop, I still have enough quality players to trade for great keepers. Not that it means anything, but the Rototimes projections have my team projected to finish second in the league. My pitching is good on paper, and will be even better than most would predict. My offense has a solid foundation, but needs to have the clunkers upgraded to mediocre versions. My outfield is among the best in the league, my catchers aren't completely awful, and there are a couple quality buys in the infield. If things break right and I can add a few quality players throughout the season, I've got a chance at going all the way. 3.13.2004
THE ULTIMATE FANTASY CHAMPIONSHIP There's a thread over at RotoJunkie about how fantasy "experts" would fare in your local league, and how one of us would fare in an expert league like LABR and ToutWars. I posted something there, but I think it's good enough to put here, too. Perhaps there needs to be a line drawn between "professional" and "expert". Professionals are paid for their contributions to fantasy baseball, while experts are those that are really really good at it. Very few people are both - Ron Shandler and Todd Zola immediately come to mind. In order to become a professional, you need to "know baseball", be able to write well, and find a way to get published/onto the internet. The first is a baseball talent issue, the second is a secondary talent issue, and the third is an opportunity issue. Really knowing fantasy baseball inside and out is not a qualification. Most of the time it's easiest for old-school baseball writers to get this kind of gig. Not only do most old-school baseball writers not understand the hard-core statistical side of baseball, they might also be completely horrible with the strategy aspect of fantasy baseball, especially when considering different kinds of leagues. Many of the best fantasy baseball people (the actual experts) don't have the three professional qualifications, or simply have no interest in being a professional. And frankly, one year of winning an "expert" league doesn't tell you much about someone's actual abilities. We all spew "sample size, sample size" when talking about stats, and it applies here, too. If you want to really find the best of the best, you need to have lots of data points. That is, you need to have many many leagues. Something like... The Ultimate Fantasy Championship Get 60 "experts" from around the fantasy baseball world - both professionals and non-professionals. Over the course of five years, have each person compete in 5 leagues each year. Each league would be of a different type, covering all the different quirky rules that pop up. Something like: - 15 team MLB 5x5 auction - 12 team NL-only 4x4 auction - 12 team AL-only 5x5 auction - 10 team MLB 5x5 draft - 12 team MLB Yahoo-style draft Participants would be "randomly" placed into leagues, such that each participant wasn't in too many leagues with another participant each year, and wasn't in the same type of league with another participant too many years. Points would be awarded based on position of finish in each league. After five years, add up all the points, and you've got a pretty good idea who the real "experts" are. I bet ESPN would cover it in their Poker/Billiards/Ping Pong/Strongest Man time slot. 3.12.2004
HOW TO WIN YOUR PUBLIC YAHOO LEAGUE Every public Yahoo rotisserie league has exactly the same settings - 5x5, 12 teams, MLB universe, hitters (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, OF, OF, UT), pitchers (SP,SP,RP,RP,P,P,P), reserves (5 bench, 1 DL), and maximums (162 games/hitter position, 1250 total IP). This is the kind of league that most people sign up for when they play Yahoo. Because of its popularity and consistency, Yahoo ranks every team in one of these leagues, and maintains a top 50 list on the fantasy baseball homepage. It's always been a dream of mine to appear on this list. Maybe if one of you reading this finishes in the top 50, you can mention me in your awards speech. The number one rule of any league is to understand how the player pool affects your values. Because there are only three OF positions in these Yahoo leagues, OF are worth less than a traditional league. Lack of a second catcher reduces catcher values as well. And getting rid of the MI/CI has different effects. SS, 2B, and 3B all keep similar value, but since the top 12 1B are very similar, 1B take a hit. My rankings will follow below. You might be tempted to jump on those 2B/SS/3B early, and that wouldn't be a bad idea, but since the rest of your league probably doesn't realize their value, you should feel free to wait for one or two of those positions to fall, and then jump on 'em. Just like you don't want to follow the crowd, you don't want to be too far out in front of the crowd. Although you can't count on it entirely, keep your eye on the Yahoo rankings. Players that are higher tend to go earlier, even when they shouldn't. Another major aspect of Yahoo leagues are the playing time maximums. Let's take hitting first. Each position has a limit of 162 games played. As much as possible, you should try to get a player into your lineup any day one of your starters isn't playing. Becaue I'm going to recommend carrying 2 to 3 extra pitchers on your bench, that leaves 2 to 3 substitute hitters. If you can, get a player that plays at least two of the following positions - 2B, SS, and 3B. When one of those positions has the day off, put the sub in. The other spot should be a 1B/OF type guy who can fill in for those positions. If you decide to keep a third hitter on your bench, make it an OF. With three OF and a UT, there are 4 positions an OF can fill in. If possible try not to have many OF from the same team, as they'll have the same days off and you'll have to sub in multiple subs on the same day, which you might not be able to do. Finally, a word about stolen bases. In league like this, having a stolen-base guy in the OF will kill you. Most teams go for power power power. If you want to win SBs fine, but you'll have to do it with 5-category guys like Abreu, Soriano, Jeter, Beltra, etc. If you go with a Pierre or Crawford type, you'll get burned in the rest of the categories. Not because of valuation, but because of what the other teams do. A side benefit of getting a good SS and 2B is that quite often these guys have stolen bases. On the pitching side of things, I like to break the 1250 IP down like this: 3 75 IP closers, and 6 starters who will each pitch about 170 IP. The 3 closers will stay in your lineup permanently, while the starters will rotate in. Because you should be able to get 6 starters who will pitch more than 175 IP, you'll be able to be a little selective - maybe not put in a starter in Coors or when he faces the Yankees. If you like the idea of being very selective with your starts, grab a 7th pitcher and finesse your way to 1250 IP. Because anyone who knows what they're doing will get to 1250 IP, the strikeouts category really becomes a SO/IP category. Although I'm real high on John Thomson this year, he's not a good pick in Yahoo leagues because of his low SO totals. I'd much rather have a Ben Sheets type who you can sit against the better offenses. And yes, although wins aren't very predictable, pitchers on better teams earn more wins. I like to have maybe one pitching stud if available, then fill in with underrated bargains. I usually spend most of my top ten picks on hitters, but there are always a pitcher or two that fall a little too far that I jump on. Keep in mind that the high IP guys (Halladay, Unit, Schilling) aren't worth quite as much, because although their extra innings at good ratios are nice, they're using up IP you could get from other places (damn that IP limit). So, like I said before, proper valuation is the key. Here are my hitter rankings. Remember, stay just ahead of the flow, picking up the players that the rest of the league undervalues. Once you get into the $15ish range with hitters, load up on quality pitchers. Don't be afraid to pick a pitcher that didn't have a spectacular year last year. Pitchers are flukey.
3.10.2004
WHY VALUATION MATTERS One of my favorite aspects of fantasy baseball is the math. Regressing the projections, computing inflation, figuring out dollar values, etc. I often think that I do a little too much of it. But then I get into a draft like last night, and I'm real happy that my dorky hobby helps me do real well with my... dorky hobby. I've participated in a few Yahoo drafts the last couple days, and last night signed up for a 12 team 5x5 league with an odd group of positions - same 23 players as most leagues, minus a catcher, two outfielders, and a pitcher. Not too weird, right? You can just draft like you normally would, except you don't have to worry about finding a second catcher or drafting those pesky mediocre outfielders. Wrong. Thanks to the handy Baseball Prospectus Player Forecast Manager, I could quickly see the rankings for this type of league. (If it was a league I really cared about, and didn't have the PFM, I would have computed the values myself and not trusted the BPro stats, but hey.) It was amazing how the value of middle infielders skyrocketed, while the outfielders weren't worth anything. ARod and Soriano ranked 20 bucks higher than Beltran and Pujols. Nine of the top 14 hitters were middle infielders. Replacement level outfielders? Try Hidalgo, Edmonds, and Larry Walker. Since I know to trust what positional replacement level tells me, I jumped on the middle infielders early and often, worrying about outfielders later. Even catchers aren't all that valuable when you only need one. Three of my first four picks were middle infielders. Soriano, Jeter, Vazquez (some dude started making "stupid Yankee lover" comments here, and then Kent. I was trying to leave the MI spot open for someone who feel too far. But Kent in the fourth round of a league like this was a major steal. Then I went on a pitching run, with an 2 OF and a 3B thrown in - Berkman, Beckett, Contreras, Wolf, Ensberg, Benitez, Kearns, Sheets. My OF and CIs don't look as nice compared to other teams, but they're still above replacement, and my middle infield is rivaled by nobody. Moral: Know the player pool and adjust your values accordingly. (Oh, and by the way, don't draft a catcher as your utility man.) --------- Side note: In Yahoo leagues with default settings, the members of non-Helton 1B mashers club are not first round picks. Maybe late second rounders. Delgado, Thome, Giambi are pretty much the equivalents of Furcal, Boone, Vidro, Rolen, Chavez, etc. Now, since most people don't realize this, you can let these MI and 3B drop a little bit before you take them, but since it's not hard to find 12 good 1B, it doesn't matter a whole lot which one you get. It is a lot better to have Renteria or Kent than Guzman or Kennedy. Hmm, this has gotten me interested in writing a full entry about Yahoo leagues. Stay tuned... 3.08.2004
20 TEAM 5x5 NO FREE AGENT MIXED LEAGUE Do you want to join a league like this? I'm curious to see how a league with 20 teams would turn out. Doesn't sound too different, in terms of player pool depth) from a 10 team AL- or NL-only league, but I think having 20 different teams would make the draft extremely fun and interesting. Because we all have other leagues that are more important, we'll disallow free agent pickups and make the reserve rosters large. If you suffer an injury, you better be able to make a trade or call someone up from reserves. If you want in, and can draft pretty much any weeknight, send me an email by clicking on "Sky" below. We'll start as soon as we get close to 20 people. No money involved. I'M WATCHING BASEBALL It's 70 degrees and sunny, I'm on "winter" break, and I'm watching baseball on TV. Who says you can't be a kid forever? 3.05.2004
YAHOO 5X5 AL-ONLY 11 TEAM DRAFT As mentioned in the post below, I just completed a Yahoo draft (details in title of post). My strategy was pretty simple - use the cool Baseball Prospectus cheat sheet and draft the most valuable player, letting my personal feelings get involved as little as possible. I think ten out of the eleven teams actually showed up to the draft, which must be a Yahoo record. They weren't as bright as the people in my other leagues - even some friends that are getting involved in fantasy baseball for the first time would have laughed at some of these picks. Joe Mauer in the fifth round? Javy Lopez and Ivan Rodriguez to the same team in the second and third round? Vernon Wells number 8 overall? Loiaza before Hudson? Berroa in the third? Palmeiro in the fourth? Tom Gordon in the 10th, one pick after Corey Koskie? Anyways, I'll stop. Here's the team I got, in order, drafting from the pole position: A. Rodriguez D. Jeter E. Chavez J. Damon H. Blalock J. Contreras F. Cordero A. Kennedy B. Williams C. Koskie L. Matos M. Mora O. Hudson G. Balfour V. Martinez B. Fullmer F. Rodney M. Olivo L. Bigbie K. Ainsworth E. DuBose M. Cuddyer C. Leskanic J. Zimmerman M. Hendrickson J. Westbrook Some value and strategy notes: * I got $355 total, and $336 for my active lineup. * I got $258 of active hitting value and $78 worth of active pitching value. Pitching went earlier than BP thought it should, so I passed until Contreras/Cordero were steals, and then again until I couldn't. * I passed on Koskie a couple rounds when I had Blalock and Chavez at third, but when he came around with the second-best hitter left worth $10 less, I had to grab him. * Hudson and Cuddyer won't be starting, but Kennedy's no lock at 2B, and it's always nice to have a backup OF. * I'll probably need to trade for pitching or pick it up off the waiver wire. In most Yahoo leagues there are one or two dominant teams, so you can't finish middle of the pack in pitching, dominate the hitting, and expect to win. You need to score well in all categories. $78 won't cut it. I think I have the hitting to trade, though. And since I have a lot of pitchers only worth a few bucks, it won't hurt to cut most of them. * I really enjoyed drafting from a list that I "trusted" 100%. BPro's projections/values are definitely very different from most of the stuff you see out there. I like some of the numbers, and others I shake my head at. But since I committed myself to this experiment, the draft was a breeze. No worrying about mistakes - my picks were always made 10 seconds after the last pick. * Keeping in mind that the BPro projections are regressed heavily, my hitters project to a .279 AVG, 284 HRs, 158 SBs, 1183 RUNs, and 1079 RBIs. Those stats look like they'd finish at the top of the league. The pitchers look like they need serious help: 4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 65 Wins, 61 Saves, and 786 SOs. ERA and Saves are decent, but the rest are awful. Waiver-wire, here I come. 3.04.2004
IDEAL DRAFT POSITION Todd Zola made a fantastic yet simple observation over at Mastersball.com about ideal draft position. If you look at dollar distribution of a theoretically typical player pool, the prices decrease exponentially, which is basically linear after the first couple rounds. So, the earlier you pick, the better. The advantage of having the first pick versus the 12th pick in the first round is bigger than the advantage of having the first pick versus the 12th pick in any later round. Number one RULZ! Anyways, that's all well and good when everyone's on the same page as far as player values go - like you'd have if you were drafting a fantasy team based on the previous year's stats. However, since you're drafting going forward, not everyone values players the same. Thus, it might actually be advantageous to draft somewhere like 5th, where you can hopefully pick up one of your top three ranked players that happens to slip a couple spots. It's like getting to pick 2nd in the first round, but 8th in the second round (or higher since someone else you value higher is likely to drop.) In the end, it always comes down to how well you can predict player performance, not how high you pick. That being said, I just got the first overall draft position in a Yahoo league draft that starts in 30 minutes. I think I might go with Baseball Prospectus' values with very little of my own thoughts and see how it turns out in 7 months. OP-ED COLUMNIST: MARRIAGE: MIX AND MATCH If you want baseball, skip down to the next entry. Fabulous NYTimes OP-ED piece about gay marriage. So far in American history we've oppressed women (and pretty much gotten over it), we've oppressed racial minorities (and pretty much gotten over it), and we've oppressed homosexuals (and have yet to get over it.) If you give it ten years, is there any doubt that the change-o-phobes in America will have gotten use to the fact that gayness is a normal part of society? Why not just skip all the divisive attitudes, hurtful comments, and ignorant whinings and get on with things. This country's got some actual problems to worry about. 3.03.2004
TRYING FOR HOME This post is motivated by a quick conversation I had with a dude that's played Strat since 1967. His number one strategy tip was to get guys in scoring position, and then always send them home if given the opportunity. In the few games I've actually played on the computer, that little box pop-up box always presents a condundrum... "The runner on third has a chance to score. The probabiliy of success is XX%. Try for home?" I know the break-even point for stealing second. I know not to ever try for third with 0 or 2 outs. But I don't intuitively or mathematically know when it's smart to send guys home. So, I thought I'd figure it out. First, I borrowed a run expectancy chart from a recent article about stolen bases over at Baseball Prospectus. It's a real good article explaining why stolen bases are overrated. There are a number of circumstances you might find yourself in, when trying for home. There might be no other runners on base, or there might be other runners on first, on second, or on first and second. There might be no outs, one out, or two outs. I took each of the twelve possibilities, and computed the break-even percentage for sending a runner home. Here's the equation I started with. It basically states that the number of runs you expect to score without trying for home should be the same as the number of runs you'd expect to score if you tried for home. ExpRuns w/o Attempt = %Succes*(ExpRuns/success) - %Failure*(ExpRuns/failure) Noting that %Success = 1 - %Failure, you can rearrange to solve for %Success: %Success = (ExpRuns w/o Attempt + ExpRuns/failure)/(ExpRuns/success + ExpRuns/Failure) Since all of the run expectancies are in the previous chart (adding one run to the cases where the attempt succeeds, of course), I had Excel compute the break-even percentages, summarized in the chart below: Conclusions: * The first thing that I noticed was that the probabilities were very similar when grouped by the number of outs. * With no outs, you really shouldn't try for home unless you're guaranteed of making it. In Strat, no matter how fast the runner and how poor the outfield throwing arm, there's always a 1/20 chance of getting thrown out. So unless the one run is important (late innings, down by one or tied), let your guy stay on third, and reap the potential benefits of a bigger inning. * With one out, you better have more than an 80% chance of success. In Strat's magical world of 5% increments, go on 85% or higher. Again, unless you really need the one run and are willing to sacrifice more to get it. * With two outs, you better damn well get the run before you use up all your outs. Unless the bases are loaded, go for home with only a 40% chance or higher. If the bases or loaded, it's about a 50/50 proposition. The reason for that is that even though you have a very small chance of scoring with two outs, if you do score, you'll probably score a lot. I guess that in addition to the "don't make the first or last out at third base" mantra, we need to add a "never make the first out at home" baseball proverb. Spread the gospel. MINOR LEAGUE KEEPERS I was just having an IM conversation with a guy in my NL 5x5 roto league about minor league keepers. In our league, you can draft minor leaguers in any of the 8 reserve rounds for between $8 and $1. Then, in addition to the limit of 10 keepers of any kind (possibly including minor leaguers), you can keep 5 additional minor leaguer players. The only stipulation is that the minor league players still have MLB rookie status and were not active in our roto league the previous year. Their salary is not deducted from the $260 auction budget, which is key. I don't place a lot of value on MLB performance three years down the road, when talking about guys who haven't played much, if at all, in the bigs. Yes, you should think about it. Yes, MLB teams need to occassionally rebuild and should focus on three years down the road. Yes, there are hotshot minor leaguers who turn out to be studs in MLB. But, a large percentage of the time, the guys who get the hype end up not deserving the hype. So many things can happen in three years that counting on one specific player to carry your team is foolish. The best strategies, MLB-wise, are hoarding lots of prospects and being happy that some of them turn out (play the percentages), or to trade prospects for more established players. I'm not advocating trading a 2002 Hank Blalock for middle relief help, but there's nothing wrong with traded a couple single-A pitchers for a Carlos Lee to replace Jermaine Dye in a season where you plan to compete for the playoffs. Acquiring a known talent for unknown talent is often a smart move, even if the unknown talent has a higher ceiling. The unknown talent also has a lower floor. In roto, I know a lot of people that trade for a $3 double-A player with a 2006 ETA. Sure, there are times when this might be good (like when you're completely out of it and just want to get something for that $68 FAABed Shea Hillenbrand), but in general, don't do it. Get more, or get a player that will have a more immediate impact. If your league rules are similar to those I outlined above, here's my advice: Without overpaying, or during a year when you're rebuilding, acquire a bunch of minor leaguers that are all likely to hit the big show next year. Keep these minor leaguers (hopefully along with some solid MLB keepers) to take the place of a few $1 duds you buy in the auction. You don't even care that the minor league keepers have expensive price tags ($8 max in my league). Most people like the really cheap keepers, so trade the cheapies to those people for quantity. If you have five minor league players that all earn $5, you've just gotten twenty free dollars when you put them in your active lineup, replacing 5 of the $1 duds. I absolutely love the loophole that lets you keep some players, who will earn a significant amount of money, for free. You'll lose out on the occasional diamond in the rough that you first paid $2 for and becomes a perennial All-Star. But while you wait for him, three years have gone by and you haven't won your league. Use minor leaguers as freely kept talent. If they eventually turn out to be perennial keepers, great. If not, they were still useful. |
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