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 A fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, and large sample sizes. 
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12.25.2003
Merry Christmas I hope everyone out there enjoyed the 25th of December. For those of you that I know, get ready for some Sky-cooked food. My family loaded me up with kitchen equipment, including a food processor and ice cream maker. What kind of ice cream should I make first - strawberry? Mango-pineapple? Peppermint? Peach-raspberry? Chocolate-espresso? Mmmm. My family also pushed me back a little bit towards the Yankees side of things with a fitted cap and framed photo of Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. Although, if you check out this DM sim of the 2004 season, the good money's on Boston. Also note that this sim study (which uses the ZiPS projections) agrees with my point of view that the AL Central will be awful next year, and that the A's will run away from the overrated Mariners and Angels (and appropriately rated Rangers). 12.24.2003
Schuykill Kings v. Hell Raisers The Hell Raisers defeated the Silicon Valley Technophobes 4 games to 2, advancing to the Peoria Strat League World Series. The Hell Raisers finished second to the Kings in the Joe Jackson division during the regular season. In an ironic twist of fate (ok, it's not that big of a deal), the Kings GM (me) drafted for the Hell Raisers during the most recent player draft. It was fun getting to decide which players would go to Hell, but here's hoping Schuykill whollops the Wannabe's. World Series next week. 12.23.2003
World Series Bound The Schuykill Kings are headed to the Big Show after a 4-2 series victory in the semi's of the Peoria Strat League. I don't have any stats handy (should be getting them within a few days - and next year we'll have a website), but rumor has it Wiki Gonzalez and Junior Spivey deserve co-MVP honors for their hand in bashing Guam's lefties. The other piece of info that drifted my way was about a 17 strikeout performance by Guam's Johan Santana in his first start. He followed it up with a 2 IP, 6 ER outing. What would Baseball Prospectus' flakiest starters list say about that? More details as I get 'em. The World Series will be played next week. 12.15.2003
ESPN.com - MLB - Stark: Momentum building: And the trading of Garciaparra could expand into a three-way blockbuster in which the Red Sox would get one of the Dodgers' starting pitchers -- most likely Odalis Perez -- then spin him elsewhere for a left fielder to replace Ramirez. I'd love for this thing to go down. I don't really know how much it would help the Sox, but it'd still be pretty damn cool. I wonder for whom (yes, this blog attempts to be grammatically correct) the Sox would spin Perez... The Cards need pitching, but the only OF of note is Edmonds. Not likely. The Braves are actually in the market for pitching - but I doubt Chipper would leave. The ChiSox might want pitching - would they give up Magglio? Probably not, but maybe Carlos Lee. How about Houston for Hidalgo? How about Seattle for Ibanez or McCracken? Or... and forget about this 10 seconds after you read it... how about they spin Perez for prospects, and use the money saved to sign Vlad for 4 years/$60 mil? That's quite tasty and would definitely push the Sox past the Yankees. ARod, Vlad, Ortiz, Nixon, Varitek Millar, Mueller, Damon - ok, 10 seconds is up. Peoria Strat League Playoffs Well, my Schuylkill Kings finished the regular season with 100 wins and ran away with the division. Led all 12 teams in AVG and ERA, according to the league secretary. And due to a less than stellar 2002 (my first year in the league), I was awarded the league's Most Improved Team award. My reward? A showdown with the two-time defending champion Guam Islanders, led by Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. My team's better, but due to some unique playoff rules, I figure I've got only about a 50/50 shot to win the best of 7 series. The league, instead of allowing a percentage (usually about 8%) of actual PAs and IPs to be used in the playoffs, allows ALL PAs and IPs to be reused. Now, I hate claiming ignorance as an excuse, and I'm not - it's more that I'm pissed at myself for not finding out all the rules and taking advantage of them. Guam's got full use of Keither Ginter, Johan Santana, and Mark Hendrickson for this series. His quality lefties will neutralize my right-bashing lineup. I need to get to his bullpen ASAP, and hope that my starters and fielding can hold his offense in check. Against his lefty rotation of Hendrickson, Santana, and Rueter, my lineup will look like this (remember, 2002 stats are used) Kearns CF Martinez DH Spivey 2B Hammonds LF Lee 1B Guerrero RF Williams 3B Gonzalez C Vizquel SS Not quite as nice as my lineup I'll be able to use once against Jeff Weaver: Guerrero RF Giles LF Durazo DH Kearns CF Ortiz 1B Lowell 3B Alomar 2B Larue C Vizquel SS My rotation stacks up as: Lowe Millwood Leiter relieved by Burnett If it goes 7, I'll be able to pitch Lowe 3 times. Here's how I see it - split games 1 and 2 (Lowe v. Hendrickson, Millwood v. Santana). Guam takes game 3 (Leiter/Burnett v. Rueter) and Schuylkill comes back in game 4 (Lowe v. Weaver). Guam takes 5 (Hendrickson v. Millwood) and 6 (Santana v. Leiter/Burnett). But if I can sneak out either 5 or 6, I'll have the game 7 advantage of Lowe v. Rueter. So, call it even. If I make it through, the World Series would present a much easier opponent. The ARod and Manny Show Manny's probably a slightly better hitter than ARod. Add in the fact that ARrod plays SS very well, and Manny plays LF average at best, ARod's the better player. Don't know if he's $5 million better, but I doubt that $5 million is the last $5 million available to the Red Sox. What will make this deal a success or failure for the Sox is what they do with Nomar Garciaparra. If they trade him for Jared Washburn, bad move. If they trade him for Bobby Abreu, good move. If they trade him for a league-average 2B, and spend the rest of his salary on an above-average LF, good move. If they trade him for Raul Ibanez (which they won't), bad move. If they convince him to play 2B next to ARod (which they won't), good move. Of all the possible deals, I'd guess more than half of them are potentially bad. That's why it's nice to know Theo Epstein's in charge. I trust him about 80% to do something productive with Nomar if they pull of the Manny for ARod switch. Because it's not just Manny for ARod that will affect the Sox; it's Manny and Nomar for ARod and ______. That blank better be damn good. 12.14.2003
CBS.SportsLine.com - Orioles land Tejada with six-year, $54M offer It had seemed as though the Mariners were going to land Tejada, but the Orioles pulled it out. Word on the street (aka blogging community/news sources) is that the O's will also sign Pudge today. The Tejada light-cone will influence: The Mariners - I'll refrain from mocking the new Quinton McCracken/Raul Ibanez outfield - or does that count as mocking? Regardless, the Mariners failed - again - to make a quality move, and it's looking more and more like they won't be division favorites next year. They could still make a surprise run at Vlad, but for now, I'm favoring the A's. The AL West could be rather disappointing in 2004. The Orioles - no, they won't compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, even if they sign Pudge. The O's have some quality young position players in Chris Richard, Jerry Hairston, Jack Cust, Brian Roberts, Jay Gibbons and Luis Matos, but I don't see any of them being stars, and the chances that all, let alone most, of them turn out to be league-average isn't so hot. Then there's the pitching staff to consider. Assuming the Birds re-sign Ponson, the starting five shapes up to be Ponson, Damien Moss, Kurt Ainsworth, Jason Johnson, and Rodrigo Lopez. All have shown flashes of brilliance, but I think it's much more likely that this staff has a 5.50 ERA than a 3.50 ERA. Ponson's slightly above average, Moss will be making money off his 2002 season for many years, Johnson and Lopez are league-average at best, and Ainsworth's still figuring things out. If I had to bets, I'd bet Ainsworth has the best chance of pulling out a 3.50 ERA in 2004. And the bullpen - eh. The Red Sox - no the Red Sox were not involved in signing any players for the Orioles. But the O's now have an extra middle infielder. I'd love it if the Sox made a trade for Jerry Hairston. He's got a good glove, and could definitely hit .280/.370/.420 for the Sox. The AL East will be the best division in 2004. ESPN.com - MLB - Roundup: Rays acquire Blum, Hendrickson Blum and Hendrickson are just the pieces of the puzzle the DRays were looking for. Sorry, nevermind. The interesting part about these little deals is that Geoff Blum is no longer a member of the Astros. Which means that Morgan Ensberg should play full time at third. Well, he should have played full time at third last year, but now he's extremely likely to rack up 600 PAs. I wonder if this was a case of the Astros GM thinking, "Gosh darn, Ensberg should have the starting job, but Jimy Williams keeps giving at-bats to Geoff Blum. If I could just get rid of Geoff Blum, Jimy can't make that mistake anymore." 2003 Final DIPS Numbers Update They're done. They're really interesting. They're on my other computer. My goal is to transfer all my baseball spreadsheets and website templates to my new computer sometime this week, and then post the 2003 DIPS numbers shortly afterwards. Thanks to all of you who sent me emails saying you actually use the numbers. Oakland Athletics News Out of the options that the article lists (Alfonseca, Benitez, DeJean, Jimenez, Mesa, Urbina), Benitez would definitely be my choice. Not only is he the best pitcher (Ugie's not far behind), but he'll come relatively cheaply because of his perceived psychological short-comings. If I were the A's, I'd sign Benitez to a two-year contract worth $3 million per year. Let him kick butt the first year, then trade him either during the off-season or before the trade-deadline next year. Most importantly, the A's shouldn't go out and spend a lot of money on a closer - not that I think they will. Keeping Foulke at the price he signed with the Sox would definitely have been a mistake. Any money they have to spend this year should go towards scoring runs. ESPN.com - MLB - Mets sign Cameron to three-year deal I like Mike Cameron. He'll make the Mets better. But the Mets are at the point where getting a little better shouldn't be their main goal. They should own up to the fact that they're bad, save some money for a couple years, reload with young guys, and then go out and sign a couple free agents to move them from slightly above average to playoff contender. All in all, Cameron's not that expensive, and he'll be fun for New York fans to watch for a few years. It could have been worse - the Mets could have blown $15 million a year on Sheffield or Vlad. That really would have put a cramp in rebuilding. I guess I'm a little disappointed because I'd hoped Cameron would be signed by a team ready to contend over the next few years, and he could push them over the edge. Cameron'd be a great fit (with a little creativity) for the Yankees, A's, Red Sox, Astros, yada yada. Here's hoping Shea doesn't hurt Cameron as much as Safeco, and Mike can show the world how good a player he really is. 12.13.2003
ESPN.com - MLB - Deal closed: Foulke chooses Red Sox over A's Actually, posting this is really just an excuse to test out the new Google Toolbar. I installed it to block all the annoying pop-up ads, but this benefit might turn out to be just as fun. I wouldn't say that the Red Sox got a deal, but considering money doesn't seem to be a big issue, there really isn't any reliever I'd want more over the next three years. The Sox bullpen v.2004 appears to be much much stronger than last year's. I'm curious as to whether they'll use the best pitcher (probably Foulke, now) as a fireman or closer. I'd guess closer, but fireman would be way cool, and wouldn't rock the boat as much as last year's fiasco since Williamson/Kim are bonafide closers. The rumor is that if the A's didn't sign Foulke, they'd put that money towards Cameron. In my view, Cameron's a much better investment, especially considering the suckiness of the A's outfield. The Mets might have something to say about Cameron, though. |
